VBM: the projected new normal that’s 20 years late (op-ed)

The 2000 presidential election is remembered for the Florida recount.  After George W. Bush was declared the victor Florida’s electoral process lost credibility.  To restore public confidence, the state legislature enacted measures to make voting more convenient.  The state established early voting and set up a vote by mail (VBM) program.  I lived in Florida during that fiasco.  I signed up for the VBM program and received primary/general election ballots in the mail for a five-year period. The state legislature’s efforts increased voter participation throughout the state.

In 2000 Oregon made a historic electoral achievement, but its significance was overshadowed by the Florida recount.  Oregon became the first state to conduct their state and federal elections entirely by mail.  Ballots were mailed to registered voter’s three weeks before the election along with a pamphlet of information on the candidates and their policy positions.  Oregon’s VBM general election turnout was 79 percent, and ever since Oregon has had one of the highest voter participation rates in the country.

Over the next two decades 4 states followed Oregon’s VBM lead.  Washington (2011) Colorado and Utah (2013) and Hawaii passed VBM legislation in 2019.  VBM didn’t eliminate in-person voting at a polling place.  It eliminated “election day” and replaced it with an “election period”.  Also, 21 other states created some variation of VBM.  Certain states allowed each county to decide whether or not they will vote entirely by mail, other states only allow VBM for state and local elections, and some states assigned specific jurisdictions as all-mail-voting areas.

Some have confused VBM with absentee voting.  A voter requesting an absentee ballot has to meet specific requirements, be physically disabled or out of town on election day.  The only requirement for VBM is voter registration.

The state-by-state stay-at-home orders during the current COVID-19 health crisis has made all registered voters eligible for absentee ballots and made vote by mail elections a necessity.  But President Trump has denounced the very concept of VBM and suggested it would lead to massive voter fraud.  In the past 20 years there has been 143 cases of fraud involving mail-in ballots, that’s 7 to 8 cases per year.  That translates into 0.00006 percent of total votes cast during that time period. 

President Trump’s concerned with the conventional wisdom that has suggested for decades that a low voter turnout benefits Republicans and a high voter turnout benefits Democrats.  It’s been reported President Trump has complained that if VBM is successful, “You’d never have a Republican elected in this country again.”  But a low voter turnout also benefits incumbents regardless of their political party.

VBM is the best thing to come out of the state-by-state stay-at-home orders, and if VBM is not the new normal by 2024 then a good crisis went to waste.

First published in the New Pittsburgh Courier 5/27/2020