Will the Democrats remain on the losing side of history? (op-ed)

At a recent Democratic fundraiser, former president Barack Obama issued a warning to the Democratic presidential candidates.  Obama told them not to move too far to the left because the average American citizen doesn’t think the system needs to be torn down and remade.  During Obama’s presidency, when he disagreed with his political opponents, Obama immediately accused them of “being on the wrong side of history.”  I doubt Obama was making the same accusation against the Democratic candidates, but he might think the Democratic party is on the losing side of history concerning three major issues. 

1). Moving too far to the left

“Moving too far left” is often referred to by Democratic strategist as “McGovernism”.  The term comes from the 1972 presidential campaign of South Dakota Senator George McGovern.  McGovern was more left of center than his Democratic primary opponents, but after he secured the nomination for president, his opponents on the right exaggerated his positions and accused McGovern of supporting legalized marijuana, amnesty for Vietnam draft evaders, and abortion on demand. (McGovern actually believed abortion was a matter best left to the states which is the modern-day pro-life position.)  The incumbent Richard Nixon defeated George McGovern in the second biggest landslide in American history.  McGovern won Washington, D.C. and one other state.  The Electoral College totals were 520 to 17.  Some progressives believe fear of “McGovernism” is misplaced.  They insist McGovern didn’t lose because he was too far left, McGovern lost because he was facing a popular president presiding over a booming economy. (That argument doesn’t help going into 2020.  Imagine President Trump’s popularity if he’s impeached, then acquitted by the Senate.)

2). Defeating an incumbent

Since 1900 twenty presidents have sought reelection, fifteen won and five have lost.  Each loser had a unique circumstance that contributed to their defeat.

After Theodore Roosevelt won the presidency in 1904, he announced he would not seek re-election in 1908. (He previously served three and a half years as president due to President McKinley’s assassination in 1901.)  In 1908 Theodore Roosevelt handpicked William Taft as his successor and Taft ascended to the presidency.  Roosevelt regretted announcing he would not seek reelection in 1908.  Roosevelt kept his word, but he ran as a third-party candidate in 1912.  Roosevelt split the Republican vote, Taft lost his reelection bid, and Democrat Woodrow Wilson became the 28^th president of the United States.

The other incumbent defeats can be summarized in a few words.  

Herbert Hoover lost in 1932 to FDR because of the 1929 stock market crash and the great depression.  Gerald Ford lost to Jimmy Carter in 1976 because he was in the shadow of Nixon.  Jimmy Carter lost to Ronald Reagan in 1980 because of gas shortages and the Iranian hostage crisis.   Finally, George H.W. Bush lost to Bill Clinton in 1992 because independent candidate Ross Perot captured 19 percent of the vote.

President Trump doesn’t have any of these problems as he mounts his reelection campaign.  The only problem he has is the next issue.

3). Impeaching the President 

There has only been two presidents, Andrew Jackson and Bill Clinton, that have been impeached.  Neither Jackson or Clinton was convicted by the Senate, therefore, no president has ever been removed from office due to impeachment.

Now, history doesn’t predict future, but with these odds, would you bet on the past repeating or the Democrats being victorious?

First published in the New Pittsburgh Courier 11/20/19